Emerging markets vs US stock performance is the debate that never dies. The US has $68.94T of market cap. All emerging markets combined are a fraction of that. And yet, decade after decade, there are stretches where the small guys win big.
The pattern from 2000 to 2025 is clear in the data. Emerging markets surged in the 2000s commodity boom, stalled in the 2010s as the dollar strengthened, and have flickered since. The US compounded through almost all of it. Boring. Relentless.
2026 is rotation in real time. South Korea's KOSPI is up nearly 60% on the AI memory boom while the US grinds higher at a slower pace. Nobody predicted Seoul would lead the year. That is the point. Leadership rotates to wherever the bottleneck is.
Rotation is the whole game here. Nobody stays on top forever, and the countries leading each decade are rarely the ones leading the next. That is exactly what a 25-year market cap history is for: spotting the turn before the crowd does.
Do not pick a side for life. Pick a side for the cycle.